Our latest report, commissioned by Nesta, explores the impact of adult obesity and overweight in the UK on productivity and the economy.

Our new analysis estimates that the annual productivity costs in 2025 are £30.8 billion. When wider costs are included (e.g. social care, NHS, quality of life and informal care costs), this figure rises to £126 billion, with significant variations across regions, income levels and ethnic groups.

What we did

Our approach to exploring the productivity impact of excess weight in the UK was underpinned by an impact framework, which we created through reviewing academic, clinical and grey literature relating to obesity and in discussion with Nesta.

Previous studies which have considered the costs of obesity and overweight, including contributions from Frontier Economics, have provided varying estimates of these costs. Different studies have included different categories of costs, used slightly different methodologies or assumptions, and relied on different data sources, including newer data as it has become available.

We built on our previous research to produce updated, more granular estimates of the economic and societal costs of obesity and overweight.

What we found

The increase in productivity costs (£30.8bn) from previous studies is largely driven by the inclusion of a wider range of the drivers of productivity compared to the previous estimate, including: presenteeism (£9.7bn), inactivity (£12.1bn), absenteeism (£8.3bn) and early mortality (£0.7bn). We have also focused on a larger age group for people out of work due to obesity (those aged 40-64) than the previous estimate (50-64).

We used the most recent figures for obesity and overweight and incorporated NICE guidelines on how to measure these conditions in people from minoritised ethnic groups. In addition, we split the calculations by obesity class where possible. Class I/II obesity is defined by a body mass index (BMI) ranging from 30.0 to 39.9, whereas Class III obesity refers to a BMI of 40.0 or above.

We found that costs vary significantly across subpopulations:

·       Individuals with a BMI over 40 account for 36% of productivity losses, despite being just 13% of the population with obesity.

·       Scotland sees the highest productivity cost per 1,000 residents; Northern Ireland the lowest.

·       People in the most deprived quintile face costs 21% higher than those in the least deprived.

·       Black ethnic groups face the highest per-capita productivity losses.

The impact

Our analysis demonstrates the scale of the challenge – and the potential gains from action. For example, reducing obesity prevalence by just 1% could prevent £245 million in productivity costs. A reduction of obesity and overweight prevalence by 5% and 0.5% per year could allow for savings of over £23.7 billion within 5 years and over £82.8 billion over the course of 10 years.

Nesta is calling for the UK government to prioritise measures that can prevent obesity in its forthcoming 10 Year Plan for Health.

Click here to read the full report: The economic and productivity costs of obesity and overweight in the UK